Superficial stability: the case of Poland’s presidential elections

There is perhaps nothing more cliché in European politics than a pro-European candidate facing a nationalist-populist in a polarised election. But Poland’s presidential elections are anything but cliché; if one knows where to look.

If Karol Nawrocki, the far-right candidate backed by the opposition Law and Justice party, wins in the second round of vote on 1 June, he is expected to attempt to bring down the government and restore his political sponsor, Jarosław Kaczyński, back to power. Conversely, if Rafał Trzaskowski of Civic Platform wins, Donald Tusk’s four-party coalition will finally gain the political backing to pass laws – with no justification for inaction and delay.

The recent issue of The Economist, featuring “The remarkable rise of Poland” as its cover story – reportedly only for the third time in history Poland has made the front page – suggests this election is a choice between moving forward and sliding backward, with clear indications of which candidate represents which perspective. In many ways, that’s true.

Nawrocki is a MAGA favourite. He posed for a photo with Donald Trump in the Oval Office, while Kristi Noem – the US secretary of homeland security, known for shooting her dog Cricket (and an unnamed goat) – came to Poland to express her support for “Karol”, her remarks edging close to blackmail: “We need you to elect the right leader. And if Poles follow this “right” direction, she suggested, they might continue to enjoy American presence in their country.

While the president of Poland doesn’t have direct control over foreign or defence policy, he or she still has influence over it. So, Nawrocki will likely do whatever he can to derail efforts toward an autonomous European security policy.

Trzaskowski, who is both a scholar and a practitioner of European policy, is expected to run an active role on the European stage, even though foreign policy is officially the government’s domain. After many years of having his ambitions and independence suppressed, he may finally be able to speak up – so one should not expect the new president to necessarily align with every government policy.

Push to the right

Nothing surprising so far? The choice between the two main parties and their leaders – far-right Law and Justice and centre-right Civic Platform – has dominated Poland since 2005, with power equally split between them: 10 years for Kaczyński and 10 for Tusk. These presidential elections feel like the culmination of this long-standing struggle. If Trzaskowski wins, he will secure another two years of government for Tusk; if Nawrocki wins, Kaczyński could return to power in 2027 or even sooner. Poland seems to be moving steadily forward, gaining a long-anticipated central role in European politics. But this presidential campaign has revealed a growing divide between the country’s internal discourse and the priorities of other major European capitals.

On the issue of migration, the current government is more restrictive than the previous one, continuing pushbacks and suspending the right to asylum. Both main candidates say they are strongly against the European Green Deal, with pro-European Trzaskowski even claiming it no longer exists.

Almost all candidates have exploited the growing anti-Ukrainian sentiment, even though three years ago, the whole country congratulated itself on its generosity and openness toward war refugees fleeing Putin’s war of aggression.

On many social issues, Polish society is becoming more progressive and secular. The women’s pro-abortion Black Marches a couple of years ago marked a turning point for many. Yet at the same time, Polish politics is increasingly shaped by nationalist, macho posturing. The victory of Donald Trump seems to have convinced even moderate centre-right figures that the future belongs to the selfish and the ruthless. By chasing the votes of an imagined silent majority, Civic Platform has pushed the political scene to the right, effectively legitimising discourse, which would have been unacceptable in the political mainstream just five years ago.

What came to the rescue of Trzaskowski’s camp is the constant flow of compromising revelations about his opponent’s past, which would have ended the candidacy of any other presidential hopeful long ago. The unimaginable prospect of a former football hooligan, allegedly linked to gangsters and prostitutes, might push concerned voters to the polls.

Peak polarisation?

What remains largely overlooked in this campaign is the sheer number of voters who did not decide to subscribe to either of the two main political tribes in the first round of elections. A record 39% of the electorate did not choose either of the representatives of the main two parties, preferring either radical right and or left-wing candidates.

This does not necessarily mark the end of the polarisation that has defined Polish politics for at least 15 years. But the existing division lines seem increasingly out of tune with the expectations of a growing share of the electorate who are becoming fed up with the duopoly that has been running the show for so long.

These presidential elections are being played out as just another ultimate political battle between good and evil. Business as usual. But new emotions are simmering underneath the surface. Sooner or later, they will either transform or upend the system.

One thing is clear: the days of the status quo are numbered.

The views expressed in this #CriticalThinking article reflect those of the author(s) and not of Friends of Europe.